Elche 4–2 Mirandes: Result & Stats

Elche

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Mirandes

Y. Qasmi 84' (pen)

Fidel 60' (pen), 29', 5' (pen)

Álvaro Rey 90+2'

Jon Guridi 45+1'

11/3/2019

Segunda División · Round 14Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Elche49%

×Draw27%

Mirandes24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElcheExpected goals in this matchMirandes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.88

Elche

1.40

Mirandes

0.88

Elche creates 59% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 149 away

1.31

creates per match

1.00

0.76

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Elche

1.31

Mirandes

1.00

allows per match

Elche

0.76

Mirandes

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elche+0.00on par

Mirandes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Mirandes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Elche or draw

76%

Elche or Mirandes

73%

Draw or Mirandes

51%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+

24%

Mirandes wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals

75%

Elche 2+ goals

41%

Elche 3+ goals

17%

Mirandes 1+ goals

59%

Mirandes 2+ goals

22%

Mirandes 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)

67%

Mirandes (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Mirandes away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.48 · 149 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Mirandes defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.40

Mirandes attack 1.00 + Elche defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Elche scores more

49%

level

27%

Mirandes scores more

24%

Elche at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

Fidel

Elche · M

8.8

Match Events

3'

Sergio González

5'

FidelPenalty

7'

Manuel Sanchez

29'

Fidel↳ Josán Fernández

45+1'

Jon Guridi↳ Martín Merquelanz

46'

Enric Franquesa← Kijera

60'

FidelPenalty

63'

Juan Cruz← Andoni López

64'

Iñigo Vicente← Galder Cerrajería

73'

Álvaro Rey

74'

Iván Sánchez← Josán Fernández

78'

Nino

78'

Pere Milla← Nino

82'

Enric Franquesa

84'

Iñigo Vicente

84'

Y. QasmiPenalty

85'

Álvaro Peña← Martín Merquelanz

90+2'

Álvaro Rey

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ElcheMirandes

Overview

43%Possession57%

8Total Shots14

5Corners7

22Fouls15

Shots

8Total Shots14

4On Target7

2Off Target3

2Blocked4

8Inside Box6

0Outside Box8

Passing

43%Possession57%

305Total Passes391

212Accurate Passes304

70%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

Discipline

22Fouls15

2Yellow Cards4

1Offsides2

Segunda División: Elche 4–2 Mirandes

Elche beat Mirandes 4-2 in Segunda División on November 3, 2019.

Goals: Fidel (5' pen, 29', 60' pen), Jon Guridi (45+1'), Y. Qasmi (84' pen), Álvaro Rey (90+2').

Mirandes controlled possession (57%) and registered 14 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.

Elche vs Mirandes — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Elche 4–2 Mirandes