Elche 1–0 Leganes: Result & Stats

Elche

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Leganes

Sergio León 33'

9/17/2023

Segunda División · Round 6Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Elche44%

×Draw30%

Leganes26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElcheExpected goals in this matchLeganes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.86

Elche

1.20

Leganes

0.86

Elche creates 40% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 106 away

1.31

creates per match

0.97

0.76

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Elche

1.31

Leganes

0.97

allows per match

Elche

0.76

Leganes

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elche+0.00on par

Leganes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche ↓

Leganes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Elche or draw

74%

Elche or Leganes

70%

Draw or Leganes

56%

Winning margin

Elche wins by 2+

19%

Leganes wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Elche 1+ goals

70%

Elche 2+ goals

34%

Elche 3+ goals

12%

Leganes 1+ goals

58%

Leganes 2+ goals

21%

Leganes 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Elche (draw refunded)

62%

Leganes (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.76 · 85 matches

Leganes away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.09 · 106 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche attack 1.31 + Leganes defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.20

Leganes attack 0.97 + Elche defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Elche scores more

44%

level

30%

Leganes scores more

26%

Elche at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Elche will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

N. Castro

Elche · M

7.7

Match Events

33'

Sergio León↳ Fidel

37'

Dani Raba

50'

Diego Garcia

57'

Cristian Salvador← N. Castro

57'

Diego González← Álex Martín

62'

S. Cissé← Luis Perea

69'

Fidel

69'

N. Djouahra← Dani Raba

70'

Mourad← Sergio León

78'

Raúl Guti← Fidel

78'

Óscar Plano← Aleix Febas

80'

Oscar Ureña← J. Chicco

80'

Lalo Aguilar← Miguel de la Fuente

80'

Darío Poveda← A. Nyom

90+4'

90+1'

90'

90+5'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ElcheLeganes

Overview

57%Possession43%

18Total Shots9

8Corners4

14Fouls10

Shots

18Total Shots9

5On Target3

6Off Target6

7Blocked0

10Inside Box4

8Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

477Total Passes366

408Accurate Passes292

86%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls10

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

Segunda División: Elche 1–0 Leganes

Elche beat Leganes 1-0 in Segunda División on September 17, 2023.

Goals: Sergio León (33').

Elche controlled possession (57%) and registered 18 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.

Elche vs Leganes — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Elche 1–0 Leganes