Elche II 0–0 Villarreal III: Result & Stats

Elche II

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Villarreal III

9/11/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 1Estadio José Díez Iborra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Elche II46%

×Draw26%

Villarreal III28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elche IIExpected goals in this matchVillarreal III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.05

Elche II

1.44

Villarreal III

1.05

Elche II creates 37% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 112 away

1.65

creates per match

1.38

0.72

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Elche II

1.65

Villarreal III

1.38

allows per match

Elche II

0.72

Villarreal III

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elche II+0.00on par

Villarreal III+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche II ↓

Villarreal III →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Elche II or draw

72%

Elche II or Villarreal III

74%

Draw or Villarreal III

54%

Winning margin

Elche II wins by 2+

22%

Villarreal III wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Elche II 1+ goals

76%

Elche II 2+ goals

42%

Elche II 3+ goals

18%

Villarreal III 1+ goals

65%

Villarreal III 2+ goals

28%

Villarreal III 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Elche II (draw refunded)

63%

Villarreal III (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Elche II at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.72 · 75 matches

Villarreal III away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Elche II attack 1.65 + Villarreal III defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.44

Villarreal III attack 1.38 + Elche II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Elche II scores more

46%

level

26%

Villarreal III scores more

28%

Elche II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Elche II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff