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Elche II vs Silla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Elche II
Elche II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Silla
Silla
2/18/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 21Campo Diego Quiles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Elche II58%
×Draw24%
Silla19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche II
1.72
Silla
0.86

Elche II creates 100% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 78 away

creates per match

Elche II
1.65
Silla
1.00

allows per match

Elche II
0.72
Silla
1.79

finishing

Elche II+0.00on par
Silla+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche II ↓

Silla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Elche II or draw
81%
Elche II or Silla
76%
Draw or Silla
42%

Winning margin

Elche II wins by 2+
32%
Silla wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Elche II 1+ goals
82%
Elche II 2+ goals
51%
Elche II 3+ goals
25%
Silla 1+ goals
58%
Silla 2+ goals
21%
Silla 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Elche II (draw refunded)
76%
Silla (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche II at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.72 · 75 matches

Silla away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.79 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche II attack 1.65 + Silla defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.72

Silla attack 1.00 + Elche II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Elche II scores more
58%
level
24%
Silla scores more
19%

Elche II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Elche II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elche II vs Silla

Elche II beat Silla 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Campo Diego Quiles in Elx.