Elche II 0–0 Paterna: Result & Stats

Elche II

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Paterna

2/1/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 23Estadio José Díez Iborra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Elche II54%

×Draw27%

Paterna19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elche IIExpected goals in this matchPaterna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.75

Elche II

1.46

Paterna

0.75

Elche II creates 95% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 27 away

1.65

creates per match

0.78

0.72

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Elche II

1.65

Paterna

0.78

allows per match

Elche II

0.72

Paterna

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elche II+0.00on par

Paterna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche II ↓

Paterna →

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Elche II or draw

81%

Elche II or Paterna

73%

Draw or Paterna

46%

Winning margin

Elche II wins by 2+

27%

Paterna wins by 2+

Team goals

Elche II 1+ goals

77%

Elche II 2+ goals

43%

Elche II 3+ goals

18%

Paterna 1+ goals

53%

Paterna 2+ goals

17%

Paterna 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Elche II (draw refunded)

74%

Paterna (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Elche II at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.72 · 75 matches

Paterna away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.26 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Elche II attack 1.65 + Paterna defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.46

Paterna attack 0.78 + Elche II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 54%?"

Elche II scores more

54%

level

27%

Paterna scores more

19%

Elche II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Elche II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff