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Elche II vs Ontinyent 1931 — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Elche II
Elche II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Ontinyent 1931
Ontinyent 1931
11/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 11Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Elche II51%
×Draw27%
Ontinyent 193122%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche II
1.44
Ontinyent 1931
0.85

Elche II creates 69% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 51 away

creates per match

Elche II
1.65
Ontinyent 1931
0.98

allows per match

Elche II
0.72
Ontinyent 1931
1.22

finishing

Elche II+0.00on par
Ontinyent 1931+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche II ↓

Ontinyent 1931 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Elche II or draw
78%
Elche II or Ontinyent 1931
73%
Draw or Ontinyent 1931
49%

Winning margin

Elche II wins by 2+
25%
Ontinyent 1931 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Elche II 1+ goals
76%
Elche II 2+ goals
42%
Elche II 3+ goals
18%
Ontinyent 1931 1+ goals
57%
Ontinyent 1931 2+ goals
21%
Ontinyent 1931 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Elche II (draw refunded)
70%
Ontinyent 1931 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche II at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.72 · 75 matches

Ontinyent 1931 away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.22 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche II attack 1.65 + Ontinyent 1931 defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.44

Ontinyent 1931 attack 0.98 + Elche II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Elche II scores more
51%
level
27%
Ontinyent 1931 scores more
22%

Elche II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Elche II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elche II 2 – 1 Ontinyent 1931

Elche II beat Ontinyent 1931 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on November 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in Elche.