Elche II 1–1 Jove Español: Result & Stats

Elche II

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Jove Español

3/5/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 23Campo Diego Quiles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Elche II52%

×Draw27%

Jove Español21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elche IIExpected goals in this matchJove Español

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

0.79

Elche II

1.43

Jove Español

0.79

Elche II creates 81% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 110 away

1.65

creates per match

0.86

0.72

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Elche II

1.65

Jove Español

0.86

allows per match

Elche II

0.72

Jove Español

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elche II+0.00on par

Jove Español+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche II ↓

Jove Español →

0–011%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Elche II or draw

79%

Elche II or Jove Español

73%

Draw or Jove Español

48%

Winning margin

Elche II wins by 2+

26%

Jove Español wins by 2+

Team goals

Elche II 1+ goals

76%

Elche II 2+ goals

42%

Elche II 3+ goals

17%

Jove Español 1+ goals

55%

Jove Español 2+ goals

19%

Jove Español 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Elche II (draw refunded)

72%

Jove Español (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Elche II at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.72 · 75 matches

Jove Español away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Elche II attack 1.65 + Jove Español defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.43

Jove Español attack 0.86 + Elche II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Elche II scores more

52%

level

27%

Jove Español scores more

21%

Elche II at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Elche II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff