Elche II 1–1 Hércules II: Result & Stats

Elche II

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hércules II

9/4/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 1Campo de Altabix

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Elche II53%

×Draw27%

Hércules II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elche IIExpected goals in this matchHércules II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.77

Elche II

1.44

Hércules II

0.77

Elche II creates 87% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 78 away

1.65

creates per match

0.81

0.72

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Elche II

1.65

Hércules II

0.81

allows per match

Elche II

0.72

Hércules II

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elche II+0.00on par

Hércules II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche II ↓

Hércules II →

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Elche II or draw

80%

Elche II or Hércules II

73%

Draw or Hércules II

47%

Winning margin

Elche II wins by 2+

27%

Hércules II wins by 2+

Team goals

Elche II 1+ goals

76%

Elche II 2+ goals

42%

Elche II 3+ goals

18%

Hércules II 1+ goals

54%

Hércules II 2+ goals

18%

Hércules II 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Elche II (draw refunded)

73%

Hércules II (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Elche II at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.72 · 75 matches

Hércules II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.22 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Elche II attack 1.65 + Hércules II defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.44

Hércules II attack 0.81 + Elche II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Elche II scores more

53%

level

27%

Hércules II scores more

20%

Elche II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Elche II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff