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Elche II vs CF Gandía — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Elche II
Elche II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
CF Gandía
CF Gandía
1/27/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 18Campo Diego Quiles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Elche II51%
×Draw26%
CF Gandía23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche II
1.50
CF Gandía
0.92

Elche II creates 63% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 32 away

creates per match

Elche II
1.65
CF Gandía
1.13

allows per match

Elche II
0.72
CF Gandía
1.34

finishing

Elche II+0.00on par
CF Gandía+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche II ↓

CF Gandía →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Elche II or draw
77%
Elche II or CF Gandía
74%
Draw or CF Gandía
49%

Winning margin

Elche II wins by 2+
26%
CF Gandía wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Elche II 1+ goals
78%
Elche II 2+ goals
44%
Elche II 3+ goals
19%
CF Gandía 1+ goals
60%
CF Gandía 2+ goals
23%
CF Gandía 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Elche II (draw refunded)
69%
CF Gandía (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche II at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.72 · 75 matches

CF Gandía away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche II attack 1.65 + CF Gandía defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.50

CF Gandía attack 1.13 + Elche II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Elche II scores more
51%
level
26%
CF Gandía scores more
23%

Elche II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Elche II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elche II vs CF Gandía

Elche II beat CF Gandía 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Diego Quiles in Elx.