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Elche II vs Alzira — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Elche II
Elche II
CANC
00:00
Alzira
Alzira
4/12/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 33Estadio José Díez Iborra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Elche II50%
×Draw27%
Alzira23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elche II
1.42
Alzira
0.87

Elche II creates 63% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 45 away

creates per match

Elche II
1.65
Alzira
1.02

allows per match

Elche II
0.72
Alzira
1.18

finishing

Elche II+0.00on par
Alzira+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elche II ↓

Alzira →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Elche II or draw
77%
Elche II or Alzira
73%
Draw or Alzira
50%

Winning margin

Elche II wins by 2+
25%
Alzira wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Elche II 1+ goals
76%
Elche II 2+ goals
41%
Elche II 3+ goals
17%
Alzira 1+ goals
58%
Alzira 2+ goals
22%
Alzira 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Elche II (draw refunded)
68%
Alzira (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elche II at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.72 · 75 matches

Alzira away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.18 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elche II attack 1.65 + Alzira defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.42

Alzira attack 1.02 + Elche II defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Elche II scores more
50%
level
27%
Alzira scores more
23%

Elche II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Elche II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elche II face Alzira (Tercera División RFEF - Group 6)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 returns with Elche II hosting Alzira. Match starts April 12, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Elche II host Alzira at Estadio José Díez Iborra.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.