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Elbasani vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë — 1st Division 2019

Elbasani
Elbasani
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
11/9/20191st Division1st Division · Round 8Stadiumi Nexhip Trungu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Elbasani43%
×Draw26%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elbasani
1.44
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.20

Elbasani creates 20% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 32 away

creates per match

Elbasani
1.38
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.94

allows per match

Elbasani
1.46
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.50

finishing

Elbasani+0.00on par
Iliria Fushë-Krujë+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elbasani ↓

Iliria Fushë-Krujë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Elbasani or draw
69%
Elbasani or Iliria Fushë-Krujë
74%
Draw or Iliria Fushë-Krujë
57%

Winning margin

Elbasani wins by 2+
20%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Elbasani 1+ goals
76%
Elbasani 2+ goals
42%
Elbasani 3+ goals
18%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë 1+ goals
70%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë 2+ goals
34%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Elbasani (draw refunded)
58%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elbasani at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

Iliria Fushë-Krujë away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elbasani attack 1.38 + Iliria Fushë-Krujë defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.44

Iliria Fushë-Krujë attack 0.94 + Elbasani defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Elbasani scores more
43%
level
26%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë scores more
31%

Elbasani at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Elbasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Elbasani 3–1 Iliria Fushë-Krujë

Elbasani beat Iliria Fushë-Krujë 3-1 in 1st Division on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Stadiumi Nexhip Trungu in Cërrik.