Elbasani 1–2 Besa Kavajë: Result & Stats

Elbasani

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Besa Kavajë

3/27/2021

1st Division · Round 18Elbasan Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Elbasani39%

×Draw26%

Besa Kavajë35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ElbasaniExpected goals in this matchBesa Kavajë

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.33

Elbasani

1.42

Besa Kavajë

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 100 away

1.38

creates per match

1.20

1.46

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Elbasani

1.38

Besa Kavajë

1.20

allows per match

Elbasani

1.46

Besa Kavajë

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elbasani+0.00on par

Besa Kavajë+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elbasani ↓

Besa Kavajë →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Elbasani or draw

65%

Elbasani or Besa Kavajë

74%

Draw or Besa Kavajë

61%

Winning margin

Elbasani wins by 2+

18%

Besa Kavajë wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Elbasani 1+ goals

76%

Elbasani 2+ goals

41%

Elbasani 3+ goals

17%

Besa Kavajë 1+ goals

74%

Besa Kavajë 2+ goals

38%

Besa Kavajë 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Elbasani (draw refunded)

53%

Besa Kavajë (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elbasani at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

Besa Kavajë away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.46 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elbasani attack 1.38 + Besa Kavajë defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.42

Besa Kavajë attack 1.20 + Elbasani defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Elbasani scores more

39%

level

26%

Besa Kavajë scores more

35%

Elbasani at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Elbasani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff