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Elazığspor vs Tepecikspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Elazığspor
Elazığspor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tepecikspor
Tepecikspor
9/25/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundElazığ Gençlik Merkezi Sahası

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Elazığspor39%
×Draw27%
Tepecikspor34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elazığspor
1.30
Tepecikspor
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Elazığspor
0.00
Tepecikspor
0.40

allows per match

Elazığspor
2.00
Tepecikspor
2.60

finishing

Elazığspor+0.00on par
Tepecikspor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elazığspor ↓

Tepecikspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Elazığspor or draw
66%
Elazığspor or Tepecikspor
73%
Draw or Tepecikspor
61%

Winning margin

Elazığspor wins by 2+
17%
Tepecikspor wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Elazığspor 1+ goals
73%
Elazığspor 2+ goals
37%
Elazığspor 3+ goals
14%
Tepecikspor 1+ goals
70%
Tepecikspor 2+ goals
34%
Tepecikspor 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Elazığspor (draw refunded)
53%
Tepecikspor (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elazığspor at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Tepecikspor away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elazığspor attack 0.00 + Tepecikspor defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.30

Tepecikspor attack 0.40 + Elazığspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Elazığspor scores more
39%
level
27%
Tepecikspor scores more
34%

Elazığspor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Elazığspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Elazığspor 0–1 Tepecikspor

Tepecikspor beat Elazığspor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 25, 2019.

The match was played at Elazığ Gençlik Merkezi Sahası in Elâzığ.