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Elazığspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. — 1. Lig 2018

Elazığspor
Elazığspor
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
2/15/20191. Lig1. Lig · Round 22Şanlıurfa GAP Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Elazığspor31%
×Draw26%
Gençlerbirliği S.K.43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elazığspor
1.19
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.46

Gençlerbirliği S.K. creates 23% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 89 away

creates per match

Elazığspor
1.12
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.26

allows per match

Elazığspor
1.65
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.25

finishing

Elazığspor+0.00on par
Gençlerbirliği S.K.+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elazığspor ↓

Gençlerbirliği S.K. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Elazığspor or draw
57%
Elazığspor or Gençlerbirliği S.K.
74%
Draw or Gençlerbirliği S.K.
69%

Winning margin

Elazığspor wins by 2+
13%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Elazığspor 1+ goals
70%
Elazığspor 2+ goals
33%
Elazığspor 3+ goals
12%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1+ goals
77%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2+ goals
43%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Elazığspor (draw refunded)
42%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elazığspor at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Gençlerbirliği S.K. away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.25 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elazığspor attack 1.12 + Gençlerbirliği S.K. defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.19

Gençlerbirliği S.K. attack 1.26 + Elazığspor defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Elazığspor scores more
31%
level
26%
Gençlerbirliği S.K. scores more
43%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Gençlerbirliği S.K. will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elazığspor vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. beat Elazığspor 2-1 in 1. Lig on February 15, 2019.

The match was played at Şanlıurfa GAP Stadyumu in Şanlıurfa.