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Elazığspor vs Bursa Yıldırımspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Elazığspor
Elazığspor
AET
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bursa Yıldırımspor
Bursa Yıldırımspor
10/30/2024Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundElazığ Doğukent Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Elazığspor16%
×Draw32%
Bursa Yıldırımspor51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elazığspor
0.50
Bursa Yıldırımspor
1.13

Bursa Yıldırımspor creates 126% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 4 away

creates per match

Elazığspor
0.00
Bursa Yıldırımspor
0.25

allows per match

Elazığspor
2.00
Bursa Yıldırımspor
1.00

finishing

Elazığspor+0.00on par
Bursa Yıldırımspor+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elazığspor ↓

Bursa Yıldırımspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–122%
0–213%
0–35%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Elazığspor or draw
49%
Elazığspor or Bursa Yıldırımspor
68%
Draw or Bursa Yıldırımspor
84%

Winning margin

Elazığspor wins by 2+
3%
Bursa Yıldırımspor wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Elazığspor 1+ goals
39%
Elazığspor 2+ goals
9%
Elazığspor 3+ goals
1%
Bursa Yıldırımspor 1+ goals
68%
Bursa Yıldırımspor 2+ goals
31%
Bursa Yıldırımspor 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Elazığspor (draw refunded)
24%
Bursa Yıldırımspor (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elazığspor at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Bursa Yıldırımspor away — creates 0.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elazığspor attack 0.00 + Bursa Yıldırımspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.50

Bursa Yıldırımspor attack 0.25 + Elazığspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Elazığspor scores more
16%
level
32%
Bursa Yıldırımspor scores more
51%

Bursa Yıldırımspor at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bursa Yıldırımspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elazığspor vs Bursa Yıldırımspor

Elazığspor and Bursa Yıldırımspor drew 0-0 in Türkiye Kupası on October 30, 2024.

The match was played at Elazığ Doğukent Stadyumu in Elazığ.