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Elazığspor vs Batman Petrolspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Elazığspor
Elazığspor
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 0
Batman Petrolspor
Batman Petrolspor
9/26/2018Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 3rd RoundElaziğ Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Elazığspor16%
×Draw25%
Batman Petrolspor59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elazığspor
0.67
Batman Petrolspor
1.58

Batman Petrolspor creates 136% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Elazığspor
0.00
Batman Petrolspor
1.17

allows per match

Elazığspor
2.00
Batman Petrolspor
1.33

finishing

Elazığspor+0.00on par
Batman Petrolspor+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elazığspor ↓

Batman Petrolspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–117%
0–213%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Elazığspor or draw
41%
Elazığspor or Batman Petrolspor
75%
Draw or Batman Petrolspor
84%

Winning margin

Elazığspor wins by 2+
4%
Batman Petrolspor wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Elazığspor 1+ goals
49%
Elazığspor 2+ goals
15%
Elazığspor 3+ goals
3%
Batman Petrolspor 1+ goals
79%
Batman Petrolspor 2+ goals
47%
Batman Petrolspor 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Elazığspor (draw refunded)
21%
Batman Petrolspor (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elazığspor at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Batman Petrolspor away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elazığspor attack 0.00 + Batman Petrolspor defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Batman Petrolspor attack 1.17 + Elazığspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Elazığspor scores more
16%
level
25%
Batman Petrolspor scores more
59%

Batman Petrolspor at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Batman Petrolspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elazığspor vs Batman Petrolspor

Batman Petrolspor beat Elazığspor 4-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 26, 2018.

The match was played at Elaziğ Atatürk Stadyumu in Elaziğ.