Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Elazığspor vs Arnavutköy Belediyespor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Elazığspor
Elazığspor
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
9/28/2021Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundElazığ Doğukent Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Elazığspor22%
×Draw25%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elazığspor
0.92
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
1.58

Arnavutköy Belediyespor creates 72% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Elazığspor
0.00
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
1.17

allows per match

Elazığspor
2.00
Arnavutköy Belediyespor
1.83

finishing

Elazığspor+0.00on par
Arnavutköy Belediyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elazığspor ↓

Arnavutköy Belediyespor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Elazığspor or draw
47%
Elazığspor or Arnavutköy Belediyespor
75%
Draw or Arnavutköy Belediyespor
78%

Winning margin

Elazığspor wins by 2+
7%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Elazığspor 1+ goals
60%
Elazığspor 2+ goals
23%
Elazığspor 3+ goals
7%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor 1+ goals
79%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor 2+ goals
47%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Elazığspor (draw refunded)
29%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elazığspor at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Arnavutköy Belediyespor away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elazığspor attack 0.00 + Arnavutköy Belediyespor defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 0.92

Arnavutköy Belediyespor attack 1.17 + Elazığspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Elazığspor scores more
22%
level
25%
Arnavutköy Belediyespor scores more
53%

Arnavutköy Belediyespor at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Arnavutköy Belediyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Türkiye Kupası: Elazığspor 0–1 Arnavutköy Belediyespor

Arnavutköy Belediyespor beat Elazığspor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on September 28, 2021.

The match was played at Elazığ Doğukent Stadyumu in Elazığ.