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Elazığspor vs 12 Bingölspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Elazığspor
Elazığspor
AET
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
12 Bingölspor
12 Bingölspor
9/17/2025Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundElazig Ataturk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Elazığspor49%
×Draw23%
12 Bingölspor28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elazığspor
1.83
12 Bingölspor
1.33

Elazığspor creates 38% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Elazığspor
0.00
12 Bingölspor
0.67

allows per match

Elazığspor
2.00
12 Bingölspor
3.67

finishing

Elazığspor+0.00on par
12 Bingölspor+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elazığspor ↓

12 Bingölspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Elazığspor or draw
72%
Elazığspor or 12 Bingölspor
77%
Draw or 12 Bingölspor
51%

Winning margin

Elazığspor wins by 2+
27%
12 Bingölspor wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Elazığspor 1+ goals
84%
Elazığspor 2+ goals
54%
Elazığspor 3+ goals
28%
12 Bingölspor 1+ goals
74%
12 Bingölspor 2+ goals
38%
12 Bingölspor 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Elazığspor (draw refunded)
64%
12 Bingölspor (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elazığspor at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

12 Bingölspor away — creates 0.67, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elazığspor attack 0.00 + 12 Bingölspor defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

12 Bingölspor attack 0.67 + Elazığspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Elazığspor scores more
49%
level
23%
12 Bingölspor scores more
28%

Elazığspor at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Elazığspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elazığspor vs 12 Bingölspor

Elazığspor and 12 Bingölspor drew 2-2 in Türkiye Kupası on September 17, 2025.

The match was played at Elazig Ataturk Stadyumu.