Elazığ Belediyespor FK 4–1 Diyarbekirspor

Elazığ Belediyespor FK

FT

4 – 1

Diyarbekirspor

4/29/2017

League #553 · Round 34Elaziğ Atatürk Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Elazığ Belediyespor FK72%

×Draw17%

Diyarbekirspor11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elazığ Belediyespor FKExpected goals in this matchDiyarbekirspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.44

0.86

Elazığ Belediyespor FK

2.44

Diyarbekirspor

0.86

Elazığ Belediyespor FK creates 184% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

2.67

creates per match

1.40

0.33

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Elazığ Belediyespor FK

2.67

Diyarbekirspor

1.40

allows per match

Elazığ Belediyespor FK

0.33

Diyarbekirspor

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elazığ Belediyespor FK+0.00on par

Diyarbekirspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elazığ Belediyespor FK ↓

Diyarbekirspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Elazığ Belediyespor FK or draw

89%

Elazığ Belediyespor FK or Diyarbekirspor

83%

Draw or Diyarbekirspor

28%

Winning margin

Elazığ Belediyespor FK wins by 2+

49%

Diyarbekirspor wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Elazığ Belediyespor FK 1+ goals

91%

Elazığ Belediyespor FK 2+ goals

70%

Elazığ Belediyespor FK 3+ goals

43%

Diyarbekirspor 1+ goals

58%

Diyarbekirspor 2+ goals

21%

Diyarbekirspor 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Elazığ Belediyespor FK (draw refunded)

86%

Diyarbekirspor (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elazığ Belediyespor FK at home — creates 2.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Diyarbekirspor away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elazığ Belediyespor FK attack 2.67 + Diyarbekirspor defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.44

Diyarbekirspor attack 1.40 + Elazığ Belediyespor FK defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Elazığ Belediyespor FK scores more

72%

level

17%

Diyarbekirspor scores more

11%

Elazığ Belediyespor FK at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Elazığ Belediyespor FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff