Elana Toruń 1–3 Vineta Wolin: Result & Stats

Elana Toruń

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Vineta Wolin

9/28/2024

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 10Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Elana Toruń59%

×Draw21%

Vineta Wolin21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elana ToruńExpected goals in this matchVineta Wolin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.21

Elana Toruń

2.15

Vineta Wolin

1.21

Elana Toruń creates 78% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 51 away

1.60

creates per match

1.27

1.14

allows per match

2.69

creates per match

Elana Toruń

1.60

Vineta Wolin

1.27

allows per match

Elana Toruń

1.14

Vineta Wolin

2.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elana Toruń+0.00on par

Vineta Wolin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elana Toruń ↓

Vineta Wolin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Elana Toruń or draw

79%

Elana Toruń or Vineta Wolin

79%

Draw or Vineta Wolin

41%

Winning margin

Elana Toruń wins by 2+

36%

Vineta Wolin wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Elana Toruń 1+ goals

88%

Elana Toruń 2+ goals

63%

Elana Toruń 3+ goals

36%

Vineta Wolin 1+ goals

70%

Vineta Wolin 2+ goals

34%

Vineta Wolin 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Elana Toruń (draw refunded)

74%

Vineta Wolin (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elana Toruń at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

Vineta Wolin away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elana Toruń attack 1.60 + Vineta Wolin defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.15

Vineta Wolin attack 1.27 + Elana Toruń defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Elana Toruń scores more

59%

level

21%

Vineta Wolin scores more

21%

Elana Toruń at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Elana Toruń will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff