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Elana Toruń vs Nielba Wągrowiec — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Elana Toruń
Elana Toruń
FT
1 – 1
Nielba Wągrowiec
Nielba Wągrowiec
8/22/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Elana Toruń38%
×Draw23%
Nielba Wągrowiec39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elana Toruń
1.68
Nielba Wągrowiec
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 17 away

creates per match

Elana Toruń
1.60
Nielba Wągrowiec
2.24

allows per match

Elana Toruń
1.14
Nielba Wągrowiec
1.76

finishing

Elana Toruń+0.00on par
Nielba Wągrowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elana Toruń ↓

Nielba Wągrowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Elana Toruń or draw
61%
Elana Toruń or Nielba Wągrowiec
77%
Draw or Nielba Wągrowiec
62%

Winning margin

Elana Toruń wins by 2+
19%
Nielba Wągrowiec wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Elana Toruń 1+ goals
81%
Elana Toruń 2+ goals
50%
Elana Toruń 3+ goals
24%
Nielba Wągrowiec 1+ goals
82%
Nielba Wągrowiec 2+ goals
50%
Nielba Wągrowiec 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Elana Toruń (draw refunded)
50%
Nielba Wągrowiec (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elana Toruń at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

Nielba Wągrowiec away — creates 2.24, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elana Toruń attack 1.60 + Nielba Wągrowiec defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.68

Nielba Wągrowiec attack 2.24 + Elana Toruń defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Elana Toruń scores more
38%
level
23%
Nielba Wągrowiec scores more
39%

Nielba Wągrowiec at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Nielba Wągrowiec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Elana Toruń 1–1 Nielba Wągrowiec

Elana Toruń and Nielba Wągrowiec drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego in Toruń.