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Elana Toruń vs Mieszko Gniezno — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Elana Toruń
Elana Toruń
FT
5 – 0
Mieszko Gniezno
Mieszko Gniezno
10/17/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 12Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Elana Toruń80%
×Draw13%
Mieszko Gniezno7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elana Toruń
2.92
Mieszko Gniezno
0.77

Elana Toruń creates 279% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 17 away

creates per match

Elana Toruń
1.60
Mieszko Gniezno
0.41

allows per match

Elana Toruń
1.14
Mieszko Gniezno
4.24

finishing

Elana Toruń+0.00on par
Mieszko Gniezno+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elana Toruń ↓

Mieszko Gniezno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Elana Toruń or draw
93%
Elana Toruń or Mieszko Gniezno
87%
Draw or Mieszko Gniezno
20%

Winning margin

Elana Toruń wins by 2+
61%
Mieszko Gniezno wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Elana Toruń 1+ goals
94%
Elana Toruń 2+ goals
78%
Elana Toruń 3+ goals
55%
Mieszko Gniezno 1+ goals
54%
Mieszko Gniezno 2+ goals
18%
Mieszko Gniezno 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Elana Toruń (draw refunded)
92%
Mieszko Gniezno (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elana Toruń at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

Mieszko Gniezno away — creates 0.41, concedes 4.24 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elana Toruń attack 1.60 + Mieszko Gniezno defence 4.24 → ÷2 → 2.92

Mieszko Gniezno attack 0.41 + Elana Toruń defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 80%?"

Elana Toruń scores more
80%
level
13%
Mieszko Gniezno scores more
7%

Elana Toruń at 80% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 80% does not mean "Elana Toruń will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Elana Toruń 5–0 Mieszko Gniezno

Elana Toruń beat Mieszko Gniezno 5-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on October 17, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego in Toruń.