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Elana Toruń vs Legionovia Legionowo — II Liga - East 2019

Elana Toruń
Elana Toruń
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Legionovia Legionowo
Legionovia Legionowo
9/1/2019II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 7Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Elana Toruń56%
×Draw21%
Legionovia Legionowo23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elana Toruń
2.15
Legionovia Legionowo
1.33

Elana Toruń creates 62% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Elana Toruń
2.00
Legionovia Legionowo
1.06

allows per match

Elana Toruń
1.59
Legionovia Legionowo
2.29

finishing

Elana Toruń+0.00on par
Legionovia Legionowo+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elana Toruń ↓

Legionovia Legionowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Elana Toruń or draw
77%
Elana Toruń or Legionovia Legionowo
79%
Draw or Legionovia Legionowo
44%

Winning margin

Elana Toruń wins by 2+
34%
Legionovia Legionowo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Elana Toruń 1+ goals
88%
Elana Toruń 2+ goals
63%
Elana Toruń 3+ goals
36%
Legionovia Legionowo 1+ goals
74%
Legionovia Legionowo 2+ goals
38%
Legionovia Legionowo 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Elana Toruń (draw refunded)
71%
Legionovia Legionowo (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elana Toruń at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Legionovia Legionowo away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elana Toruń attack 2.00 + Legionovia Legionowo defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.15

Legionovia Legionowo attack 1.06 + Elana Toruń defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Elana Toruń scores more
56%
level
21%
Legionovia Legionowo scores more
23%

Elana Toruń at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Elana Toruń will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Elana Toruń vs Legionovia Legionowo

Elana Toruń beat Legionovia Legionowo 4-1 in II Liga - East on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego in Toruń.