Elana Toruń 2–0 Górnik Konin: Result & Stats

Elana Toruń

FT

2 – 0

Górnik Konin

11/25/2020

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Elana Toruń54%

×Draw24%

Górnik Konin22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Elana ToruńExpected goals in this matchGórnik Konin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.98

Elana Toruń

1.71

Górnik Konin

0.98

Elana Toruń creates 74% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 17 away

1.60

creates per match

0.82

1.14

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Elana Toruń

1.60

Górnik Konin

0.82

allows per match

Elana Toruń

1.14

Górnik Konin

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Elana Toruń+0.00on par

Górnik Konin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elana Toruń ↓

Górnik Konin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Elana Toruń or draw

78%

Elana Toruń or Górnik Konin

76%

Draw or Górnik Konin

46%

Winning margin

Elana Toruń wins by 2+

30%

Górnik Konin wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Elana Toruń 1+ goals

82%

Elana Toruń 2+ goals

51%

Elana Toruń 3+ goals

24%

Górnik Konin 1+ goals

62%

Górnik Konin 2+ goals

26%

Górnik Konin 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Elana Toruń (draw refunded)

72%

Górnik Konin (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elana Toruń at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

Górnik Konin away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elana Toruń attack 1.60 + Górnik Konin defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.71

Górnik Konin attack 0.82 + Elana Toruń defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Elana Toruń scores more

54%

level

24%

Górnik Konin scores more

22%

Elana Toruń at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Elana Toruń will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff