Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Elana Toruń vs Chemik Police — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Elana Toruń
Elana Toruń
FT
6 – 0
Chemik Police
Chemik Police
11/29/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 17Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Elana Toruń66%
×Draw19%
Chemik Police15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elana Toruń
2.30
Chemik Police
1.01

Elana Toruń creates 128% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 17 away

creates per match

Elana Toruń
1.60
Chemik Police
0.88

allows per match

Elana Toruń
1.14
Chemik Police
3.00

finishing

Elana Toruń+0.00on par
Chemik Police+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elana Toruń ↓

Chemik Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Elana Toruń or draw
85%
Elana Toruń or Chemik Police
81%
Draw or Chemik Police
34%

Winning margin

Elana Toruń wins by 2+
43%
Chemik Police wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Elana Toruń 1+ goals
90%
Elana Toruń 2+ goals
67%
Elana Toruń 3+ goals
40%
Chemik Police 1+ goals
64%
Chemik Police 2+ goals
27%
Chemik Police 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Elana Toruń (draw refunded)
81%
Chemik Police (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elana Toruń at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

Chemik Police away — creates 0.88, concedes 3.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elana Toruń attack 1.60 + Chemik Police defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.30

Chemik Police attack 0.88 + Elana Toruń defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Elana Toruń scores more
66%
level
19%
Chemik Police scores more
15%

Elana Toruń at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Elana Toruń will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Elana Toruń 6–0 Chemik Police

Elana Toruń beat Chemik Police 6-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on November 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego in Toruń.