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El Palo vs Malaga City — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

El Palo
El Palo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Malaga City
Malaga City
3/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 25Campo Futbol Tiro De Pichon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

El Palo57%
×Draw24%
Malaga City19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Palo
1.71
Malaga City
0.88

El Palo creates 94% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 49 away

creates per match

El Palo
1.46
Malaga City
0.67

allows per match

El Palo
1.08
Malaga City
1.96

finishing

El Palo+0.00on par
Malaga City+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Palo ↓

Malaga City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

El Palo or draw
81%
El Palo or Malaga City
76%
Draw or Malaga City
43%

Winning margin

El Palo wins by 2+
32%
Malaga City wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

El Palo 1+ goals
82%
El Palo 2+ goals
51%
El Palo 3+ goals
24%
Malaga City 1+ goals
59%
Malaga City 2+ goals
22%
Malaga City 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

El Palo (draw refunded)
75%
Malaga City (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Palo at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 92 matches

Malaga City away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.96 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Palo attack 1.46 + Malaga City defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.71

Malaga City attack 0.67 + El Palo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

El Palo scores more
57%
level
24%
Malaga City scores more
19%

El Palo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "El Palo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: El Palo vs Malaga City

El Palo beat Malaga City 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Campo Futbol Tiro De Pichon in Málaga.