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El Palo vs Alhaurín — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

El Palo
El Palo
CANC
00:00
Alhaurín
Alhaurín
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 35Estadio San Ignacio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

El Palo56%
×Draw23%
Alhaurín21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Palo
1.83
Alhaurín
1.03

El Palo creates 78% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 43 away

creates per match

El Palo
1.46
Alhaurín
0.98

allows per match

El Palo
1.08
Alhaurín
2.21

finishing

El Palo+0.00on par
Alhaurín+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Palo ↓

Alhaurín →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

El Palo or draw
79%
El Palo or Alhaurín
77%
Draw or Alhaurín
44%

Winning margin

El Palo wins by 2+
32%
Alhaurín wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

El Palo 1+ goals
84%
El Palo 2+ goals
54%
El Palo 3+ goals
28%
Alhaurín 1+ goals
64%
Alhaurín 2+ goals
28%
Alhaurín 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

El Palo (draw refunded)
73%
Alhaurín (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Palo at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.08 · 92 matches

Alhaurín away — creates 0.98, concedes 2.21 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Palo attack 1.46 + Alhaurín defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.83

Alhaurín attack 0.98 + El Palo defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

El Palo scores more
56%
level
23%
Alhaurín scores more
21%

El Palo at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "El Palo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

El Palo face Alhaurín (Tercera División RFEF - Group 9)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 returns with El Palo hosting Alhaurín. Match starts April 26, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

El Palo host Alhaurín at Estadio San Ignacio.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.