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El Palmar vs UCAM Murcia II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

El Palmar
El Palmar
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
UCAM Murcia II
UCAM Murcia II
4/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 31Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

El Palmar34%
×Draw27%
UCAM Murcia II39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Palmar
1.23
UCAM Murcia II
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 110 away

creates per match

El Palmar
1.33
UCAM Murcia II
1.33

allows per match

El Palmar
1.33
UCAM Murcia II
1.14

finishing

El Palmar+0.00on par
UCAM Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Palmar ↓

UCAM Murcia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

El Palmar or draw
61%
El Palmar or UCAM Murcia II
73%
Draw or UCAM Murcia II
66%

Winning margin

El Palmar wins by 2+
15%
UCAM Murcia II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

El Palmar 1+ goals
71%
El Palmar 2+ goals
35%
El Palmar 3+ goals
13%
UCAM Murcia II 1+ goals
74%
UCAM Murcia II 2+ goals
38%
UCAM Murcia II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

El Palmar (draw refunded)
47%
UCAM Murcia II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Palmar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 113 matches

UCAM Murcia II away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.14 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Palmar attack 1.33 + UCAM Murcia II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

UCAM Murcia II attack 1.33 + El Palmar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

El Palmar scores more
34%
level
27%
UCAM Murcia II scores more
39%

UCAM Murcia II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "UCAM Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: El Palmar 0–4 UCAM Murcia II

UCAM Murcia II beat El Palmar 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 28, 2024.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar in El Palmar.