El Palmar 2–2 Real Murcia II: Result & Stats

El Palmar

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Real Murcia II

10/29/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 8Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 111+ matches

El Palmar35%

×Draw27%

Real Murcia II38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

El PalmarExpected goals in this matchReal Murcia II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.29

El Palmar

1.24

Real Murcia II

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 111 away

1.33

creates per match

1.24

1.33

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

El Palmar

1.33

Real Murcia II

1.24

allows per match

El Palmar

1.33

Real Murcia II

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

El Palmar+0.00on par

Real Murcia II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Palmar ↓

Real Murcia II →

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

El Palmar or draw

62%

El Palmar or Real Murcia II

73%

Draw or Real Murcia II

65%

Winning margin

El Palmar wins by 2+

15%

Real Murcia II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

El Palmar 1+ goals

71%

El Palmar 2+ goals

35%

El Palmar 3+ goals

13%

Real Murcia II 1+ goals

72%

Real Murcia II 2+ goals

37%

Real Murcia II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

El Palmar (draw refunded)

48%

Real Murcia II (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

El Palmar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 113 matches

Real Murcia II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

El Palmar attack 1.33 + Real Murcia II defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.24

Real Murcia II attack 1.24 + El Palmar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

El Palmar scores more

35%

level

27%

Real Murcia II scores more

38%

Real Murcia II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Real Murcia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff