El Palmar 2–5 Lorca FC: Result & Stats

El Palmar

2 – 5

HT: 1 – 3

Lorca FC

1/12/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 20Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

El Palmar37%

×Draw28%

Lorca FC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

El PalmarExpected goals in this matchLorca FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.13

El Palmar

1.17

Lorca FC

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 113 home / 14 away

1.33

creates per match

0.93

1.33

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

El Palmar

1.33

Lorca FC

0.93

allows per match

El Palmar

1.33

Lorca FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

El Palmar+0.00on par

Lorca FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Palmar ↓

Lorca FC →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

El Palmar or draw

65%

El Palmar or Lorca FC

72%

Draw or Lorca FC

63%

Winning margin

El Palmar wins by 2+

15%

Lorca FC wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

El Palmar 1+ goals

69%

El Palmar 2+ goals

33%

El Palmar 3+ goals

11%

Lorca FC 1+ goals

68%

Lorca FC 2+ goals

31%

Lorca FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

El Palmar (draw refunded)

51%

Lorca FC (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

El Palmar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 113 matches

Lorca FC away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

El Palmar attack 1.33 + Lorca FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Lorca FC attack 0.93 + El Palmar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

El Palmar scores more

37%

level

28%

Lorca FC scores more

35%

El Palmar at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "El Palmar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff