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El Palmar vs Huércal Overa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

El Palmar
El Palmar
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Huércal Overa
Huércal Overa
10/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 5Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

El Palmar47%
×Draw26%
Huércal Overa27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Palmar
1.50
Huércal Overa
1.06

El Palmar creates 42% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 47 away

creates per match

El Palmar
1.33
Huércal Overa
0.79

allows per match

El Palmar
1.33
Huércal Overa
1.68

finishing

El Palmar+0.00on par
Huércal Overa+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Palmar ↓

Huércal Overa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

El Palmar or draw
73%
El Palmar or Huércal Overa
74%
Draw or Huércal Overa
53%

Winning margin

El Palmar wins by 2+
24%
Huércal Overa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

El Palmar 1+ goals
78%
El Palmar 2+ goals
44%
El Palmar 3+ goals
19%
Huércal Overa 1+ goals
65%
Huércal Overa 2+ goals
29%
Huércal Overa 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

El Palmar (draw refunded)
64%
Huércal Overa (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Palmar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 113 matches

Huércal Overa away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.68 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Palmar attack 1.33 + Huércal Overa defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.50

Huércal Overa attack 0.79 + El Palmar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

El Palmar scores more
47%
level
26%
Huércal Overa scores more
27%

El Palmar at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "El Palmar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

El Palmar 0 – 0 Huércal Overa

El Palmar and Huércal Overa drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar in El Palmar.