El Palmar 0–1 CAP Ciudad de Murcia: Result & Stats

El Palmar

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Fran Martínez 32'

1/28/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 18Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

El Palmar44%

×Draw27%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

El PalmarExpected goals in this matchCAP Ciudad de Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.09

El Palmar

1.39

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.09

El Palmar creates 28% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 78 away

1.33

creates per match

0.85

1.33

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

El Palmar

1.33

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.85

allows per match

El Palmar

1.33

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

El Palmar+0.00on par

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Palmar ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

El Palmar or draw

71%

El Palmar or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

73%

Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

56%

Winning margin

El Palmar wins by 2+

21%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

El Palmar 1+ goals

75%

El Palmar 2+ goals

40%

El Palmar 3+ goals

16%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

66%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

30%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

El Palmar (draw refunded)

60%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

El Palmar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 113 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

El Palmar attack 1.33 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.39

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + El Palmar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

El Palmar scores more

44%

level

27%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

29%

El Palmar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "El Palmar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

Fran Martínez

60'

Miguel Guirao← José María

60'

Antonio Escribano← David

62'

Alejandro Pascual← Pablo Guillen

67'

Juan López← Borjita García

70'

Álvaro Moñino← Fran Martínez

80'

A. Hassi← Lorenzo Lopez

80'

Hamza Agnaou← Felipe Valverde

87'

Sergio González← Francisco Resta

CAP

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Antonio Calatayud

60'▲Miguel Guirao←▼José María

60'▲Antonio Escribano←▼David

67'▲Juan López←▼Borjita García

87'▲Sergio González←▼Francisco Resta

El Palmar substitutes

GuiraoEscribanoLópezGonzález

Manager: Francisco Lorca

62'▲Alejandro Pascual←▼Pablo Guillen

70'▲Álvaro Moñino←▼Fran Martínez

80'▲A. Hassi←▼Lorenzo Lopez

80'▲Hamza Agnaou←▼Felipe Valverde

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

PascualMoñinoHassiAgnaou

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: El Palmar 0–1 CAP Ciudad de Murcia

CAP Ciudad de Murcia beat El Palmar 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on January 28, 2024.

Goals: Fran Martínez (32').

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar in El Palmar.

El Palmar vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13: El Palmar 0–1 CAP Ciudad de Murcia