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El Palmar vs Bullense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

El Palmar
El Palmar
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bullense
Bullense
2/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 21Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

El Palmar53%
×Draw24%
Bullense23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Palmar
1.73
Bullense
1.06

El Palmar creates 63% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 79 away

creates per match

El Palmar
1.33
Bullense
0.78

allows per match

El Palmar
1.33
Bullense
2.13

finishing

El Palmar+0.00on par
Bullense+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Palmar ↓

Bullense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

El Palmar or draw
77%
El Palmar or Bullense
76%
Draw or Bullense
47%

Winning margin

El Palmar wins by 2+
29%
Bullense wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

El Palmar 1+ goals
82%
El Palmar 2+ goals
52%
El Palmar 3+ goals
25%
Bullense 1+ goals
65%
Bullense 2+ goals
29%
Bullense 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

El Palmar (draw refunded)
70%
Bullense (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Palmar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 113 matches

Bullense away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.13 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Palmar attack 1.33 + Bullense defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.73

Bullense attack 0.78 + El Palmar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

El Palmar scores more
53%
level
24%
Bullense scores more
23%

El Palmar at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "El Palmar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: El Palmar vs Bullense

El Palmar beat Bullense 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar in El Palmar.