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El Palmar vs Bala Azul — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

El Palmar
El Palmar
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Bala Azul
Bala Azul
9/5/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 1Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

El Palmar41%
×Draw27%
Bala Azul31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Palmar
1.32
Bala Azul
1.11

El Palmar creates 19% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 51 away

creates per match

El Palmar
1.33
Bala Azul
0.90

allows per match

El Palmar
1.33
Bala Azul
1.31

finishing

El Palmar+0.00on par
Bala Azul+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Palmar ↓

Bala Azul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

El Palmar or draw
69%
El Palmar or Bala Azul
73%
Draw or Bala Azul
59%

Winning margin

El Palmar wins by 2+
19%
Bala Azul wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

El Palmar 1+ goals
73%
El Palmar 2+ goals
38%
El Palmar 3+ goals
15%
Bala Azul 1+ goals
67%
Bala Azul 2+ goals
30%
Bala Azul 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

El Palmar (draw refunded)
57%
Bala Azul (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Palmar at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 113 matches

Bala Azul away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Palmar attack 1.33 + Bala Azul defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

Bala Azul attack 0.90 + El Palmar defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

El Palmar scores more
41%
level
27%
Bala Azul scores more
31%

El Palmar at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "El Palmar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: El Palmar vs Bala Azul

El Palmar beat Bala Azul 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on September 5, 2021.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal El Palmar in El Palmar.