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Bala Azul vs El Palmar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Bala Azul
Bala Azul
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
El Palmar
El Palmar
2/2/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 20Complejo Deportivo Mazarrón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bala Azul47%
×Draw28%
El Palmar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bala Azul
1.35
El Palmar
0.92

Bala Azul creates 47% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 111 away

creates per match

Bala Azul
1.12
El Palmar
1.03

allows per match

Bala Azul
0.80
El Palmar
1.58

finishing

Bala Azul+0.00on par
El Palmar+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bala Azul ↓

El Palmar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bala Azul or draw
74%
Bala Azul or El Palmar
72%
Draw or El Palmar
53%

Winning margin

Bala Azul wins by 2+
22%
El Palmar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bala Azul 1+ goals
74%
Bala Azul 2+ goals
39%
Bala Azul 3+ goals
15%
El Palmar 1+ goals
60%
El Palmar 2+ goals
23%
El Palmar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bala Azul (draw refunded)
65%
El Palmar (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bala Azul at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

El Palmar away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.58 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bala Azul attack 1.12 + El Palmar defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.35

El Palmar attack 1.03 + Bala Azul defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Bala Azul scores more
47%
level
28%
El Palmar scores more
26%

Bala Azul at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Bala Azul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bala Azul 1 – 0 El Palmar

Bala Azul beat El Palmar 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo Mazarrón in Mazarrón.