El Nacional vs Independiente del Valle — Copa Ecuador 2022
Copa Ecuador · Quadrangular Semi-finals - 2Estadio General Rumiñahui del Valle de Los ChillosMatch Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 8+ matches
El Nacional29%
Independiente del Valle47%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Independiente del Valle creates 31% more chances
Season form · 8 home / 11 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over57
- Under43
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes59
- No41
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
El Nacional ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
El Nacional at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 8 matches
Independiente del Valle away — creates 2.36, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
El Nacional attack 1.75 + Independiente del Valle defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.28
Independiente del Valle attack 2.36 + El Nacional defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.68
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Independiente del Valle at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Independiente del Valle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
El Nacional host Independiente del Valle on Friday, 7 October 2022 at 20:00. The match is part of the Copa Ecuador 2022/2023 season.
El Nacional 0 – 2 Independiente del Valle
Independiente del Valle beat El Nacional 2-0 in Copa Ecuador on October 7, 2022.
Goals: J. Bauman (22', 45+2').
The match was played at Estadio General Rumiñahui del Valle de Los Chillos in Sangolquí.