El Gouna FC vs El Mokawloon — Premier League 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 99+ matches
El Gouna FC35%
El Mokawloon36%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 112 home / 99 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
El Gouna FC ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
El Gouna FC at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.18 · 112 matches
El Mokawloon away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 99 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
El Gouna FC attack 0.98 + El Mokawloon defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.10
El Mokawloon attack 1.08 + El Gouna FC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 36%?"
El Mokawloon at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 36% does not mean "El Mokawloon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Zamalek SC
Pyramids FC
Al Ahly
Wadi Degla
Masr
National Bank of EgyptEl Gouna FC
Petrojet
Ceramica Cleopatra
AL Masry
Ghazl El MehallaEl Mokawloon
Future FC
El Geish
Enppi
Al Ittihad
Kahraba Ismailia
Smouha SC
Haras El Hodood
Pharco
Ismaily SCIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
El Gouna FC host El Mokawloon on Wednesday, 3 April 2024 at 20:00. The match is part of the Premier League 2018/2019 season.
Premier League: El Gouna FC 1–2 El Mokawloon
El Mokawloon beat El Gouna FC 2-1 in Premier League on April 3, 2024.
The match was played at Khaled Bichara Stadium in El-Gouna.