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El Ejido vs Melilla CD — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

El Ejido
El Ejido
CANC
00:00
Melilla CD
Melilla CD
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 34Estadio de Municipal Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

El Ejido56%
×Draw22%
Melilla CD22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Ejido
1.90
Melilla CD
1.11

El Ejido creates 71% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 28 away

creates per match

El Ejido
1.19
Melilla CD
0.82

allows per match

El Ejido
1.40
Melilla CD
2.61

finishing

El Ejido+0.00on par
Melilla CD+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Ejido ↓

Melilla CD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

El Ejido or draw
78%
El Ejido or Melilla CD
78%
Draw or Melilla CD
44%

Winning margin

El Ejido wins by 2+
32%
Melilla CD wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

El Ejido 1+ goals
85%
El Ejido 2+ goals
56%
El Ejido 3+ goals
29%
Melilla CD 1+ goals
67%
Melilla CD 2+ goals
30%
Melilla CD 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

El Ejido (draw refunded)
72%
Melilla CD (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Ejido at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 48 matches

Melilla CD away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Ejido attack 1.19 + Melilla CD defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 1.90

Melilla CD attack 0.82 + El Ejido defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

El Ejido scores more
56%
level
22%
Melilla CD scores more
22%

El Ejido at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "El Ejido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: El Ejido host Melilla CD

April 19, 2020: El Ejido take on Melilla CD in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

El Ejido host Melilla CD at Estadio de Municipal Santo Domingo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.