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El Ejido vs Málaga II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

El Ejido
El Ejido
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Málaga II
Málaga II
2/9/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 21Estadio Municipal Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

El Ejido31%
×Draw27%
Málaga II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Ejido
1.15
Málaga II
1.38

Málaga II creates 20% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 92 away

creates per match

El Ejido
1.19
Málaga II
1.35

allows per match

El Ejido
1.40
Málaga II
1.10

finishing

El Ejido+0.00on par
Málaga II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Ejido ↓

Málaga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

El Ejido or draw
58%
El Ejido or Málaga II
73%
Draw or Málaga II
69%

Winning margin

El Ejido wins by 2+
13%
Málaga II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

El Ejido 1+ goals
68%
El Ejido 2+ goals
32%
El Ejido 3+ goals
11%
Málaga II 1+ goals
75%
Málaga II 2+ goals
40%
Málaga II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

El Ejido (draw refunded)
43%
Málaga II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Ejido at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 48 matches

Málaga II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Ejido attack 1.19 + Málaga II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.15

Málaga II attack 1.35 + El Ejido defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

El Ejido scores more
31%
level
27%
Málaga II scores more
42%

Málaga II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: El Ejido vs Málaga II

Málaga II beat El Ejido 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 9, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Santo Domingo in El Ejido.