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El Ejido vs Loja — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

El Ejido
El Ejido
CANC
00:00
Loja
Loja
3/29/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 32Estadio de Municipal Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

El Ejido50%
×Draw24%
Loja26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Ejido
1.72
Loja
1.19

El Ejido creates 45% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 29 away

creates per match

El Ejido
1.19
Loja
0.97

allows per match

El Ejido
1.40
Loja
2.24

finishing

El Ejido+0.00on par
Loja+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Ejido ↓

Loja →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

El Ejido or draw
74%
El Ejido or Loja
76%
Draw or Loja
50%

Winning margin

El Ejido wins by 2+
27%
Loja wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

El Ejido 1+ goals
82%
El Ejido 2+ goals
51%
El Ejido 3+ goals
25%
Loja 1+ goals
70%
Loja 2+ goals
33%
Loja 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

El Ejido (draw refunded)
65%
Loja (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Ejido at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 48 matches

Loja away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Ejido attack 1.19 + Loja defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.72

Loja attack 0.97 + El Ejido defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

El Ejido scores more
50%
level
24%
Loja scores more
26%

El Ejido at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "El Ejido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

El Ejido vs Loja — Match Preview

El Ejido face Loja on March 29, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

El Ejido host Loja at Estadio de Municipal Santo Domingo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.