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El Ejido vs Linares Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

El Ejido
El Ejido
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Linares Deportivo
Linares Deportivo
3/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 28Estadio de Municipal Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

El Ejido22%
×Draw24%
Linares Deportivo55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Ejido
0.99
Linares Deportivo
1.73

Linares Deportivo creates 75% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 14 away

creates per match

El Ejido
1.19
Linares Deportivo
2.07

allows per match

El Ejido
1.40
Linares Deportivo
0.79

finishing

El Ejido+0.00on par
Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Ejido ↓

Linares Deportivo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

El Ejido or draw
45%
El Ejido or Linares Deportivo
76%
Draw or Linares Deportivo
78%

Winning margin

El Ejido wins by 2+
8%
Linares Deportivo wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

El Ejido 1+ goals
63%
El Ejido 2+ goals
26%
El Ejido 3+ goals
8%
Linares Deportivo 1+ goals
82%
Linares Deportivo 2+ goals
52%
Linares Deportivo 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

El Ejido (draw refunded)
28%
Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Ejido at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 48 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Ejido attack 1.19 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.99

Linares Deportivo attack 2.07 + El Ejido defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

El Ejido scores more
22%
level
24%
Linares Deportivo scores more
55%

Linares Deportivo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: El Ejido vs Linares Deportivo

Linares Deportivo beat El Ejido 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio de Municipal Santo Domingo in El Ejido.