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El Ejido vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

El Ejido
El Ejido
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
10/22/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 7Estadio Municipal Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

El Ejido38%
×Draw26%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Ejido
1.32
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 110 away

creates per match

El Ejido
1.19
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.16

allows per match

El Ejido
1.40
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.45

finishing

El Ejido+0.00on par
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Ejido ↓

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

El Ejido or draw
64%
El Ejido or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
74%
Draw or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
62%

Winning margin

El Ejido wins by 2+
17%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

El Ejido 1+ goals
73%
El Ejido 2+ goals
38%
El Ejido 3+ goals
15%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals
72%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals
37%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

El Ejido (draw refunded)
51%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Ejido at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 48 matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Ejido attack 1.19 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.32

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.16 + El Ejido defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

El Ejido scores more
38%
level
26%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more
36%

El Ejido at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "El Ejido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: El Ejido vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno beat El Ejido 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Santo Domingo in El Ejido.