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El Ejido vs Atlético Porcuna — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

El Ejido
El Ejido
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Porcuna
Atlético Porcuna
10/6/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 7Estadio de Municipal Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

El Ejido43%
×Draw26%
Atlético Porcuna31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Ejido
1.44
Atlético Porcuna
1.19

El Ejido creates 21% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 94 away

creates per match

El Ejido
1.19
Atlético Porcuna
0.99

allows per match

El Ejido
1.40
Atlético Porcuna
1.69

finishing

El Ejido+0.00on par
Atlético Porcuna+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Ejido ↓

Atlético Porcuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

El Ejido or draw
69%
El Ejido or Atlético Porcuna
74%
Draw or Atlético Porcuna
57%

Winning margin

El Ejido wins by 2+
21%
Atlético Porcuna wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

El Ejido 1+ goals
76%
El Ejido 2+ goals
42%
El Ejido 3+ goals
18%
Atlético Porcuna 1+ goals
70%
Atlético Porcuna 2+ goals
33%
Atlético Porcuna 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

El Ejido (draw refunded)
58%
Atlético Porcuna (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Ejido at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 48 matches

Atlético Porcuna away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.69 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Ejido attack 1.19 + Atlético Porcuna defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.44

Atlético Porcuna attack 0.99 + El Ejido defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

El Ejido scores more
43%
level
26%
Atlético Porcuna scores more
31%

El Ejido at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "El Ejido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: El Ejido 1–0 Atlético Porcuna

El Ejido beat Atlético Porcuna 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on October 6, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio de Municipal Santo Domingo in El Ejido.