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El Ejido vs Atlético Melilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

El Ejido
El Ejido
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Atlético Melilla
Atlético Melilla
1/28/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 19Estadio Municipal Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

El Ejido74%
×Draw15%
Atlético Melilla11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Ejido
2.68
Atlético Melilla
0.93

El Ejido creates 188% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 17 away

creates per match

El Ejido
1.19
Atlético Melilla
0.47

allows per match

El Ejido
1.40
Atlético Melilla
4.18

finishing

El Ejido+0.00on par
Atlético Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Ejido ↓

Atlético Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

El Ejido or draw
89%
El Ejido or Atlético Melilla
85%
Draw or Atlético Melilla
26%

Winning margin

El Ejido wins by 2+
53%
Atlético Melilla wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

El Ejido 1+ goals
93%
El Ejido 2+ goals
74%
El Ejido 3+ goals
49%
Atlético Melilla 1+ goals
61%
Atlético Melilla 2+ goals
24%
Atlético Melilla 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

El Ejido (draw refunded)
87%
Atlético Melilla (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Ejido at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 48 matches

Atlético Melilla away — creates 0.47, concedes 4.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Ejido attack 1.19 + Atlético Melilla defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 2.68

Atlético Melilla attack 0.47 + El Ejido defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

El Ejido scores more
74%
level
15%
Atlético Melilla scores more
11%

El Ejido at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "El Ejido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: El Ejido 3–1 Atlético Melilla

El Ejido beat Atlético Melilla 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 28, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Santo Domingo in El Ejido.