Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

El Ejido vs Arenas Armilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

El Ejido
El Ejido
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Arenas Armilla
Arenas Armilla
11/26/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 12Estadio Municipal Santo Domingo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

El Ejido36%
×Draw28%
Arenas Armilla36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Ejido
1.17
Arenas Armilla
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 68 away

creates per match

El Ejido
1.19
Arenas Armilla
0.94

allows per match

El Ejido
1.40
Arenas Armilla
1.16

finishing

El Ejido+0.00on par
Arenas Armilla+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Ejido ↓

Arenas Armilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

El Ejido or draw
64%
El Ejido or Arenas Armilla
72%
Draw or Arenas Armilla
64%

Winning margin

El Ejido wins by 2+
15%
Arenas Armilla wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

El Ejido 1+ goals
69%
El Ejido 2+ goals
33%
El Ejido 3+ goals
11%
Arenas Armilla 1+ goals
69%
Arenas Armilla 2+ goals
33%
Arenas Armilla 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

El Ejido (draw refunded)
50%
Arenas Armilla (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Ejido at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.40 · 48 matches

Arenas Armilla away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Ejido attack 1.19 + Arenas Armilla defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.17

Arenas Armilla attack 0.94 + El Ejido defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

El Ejido scores more
36%
level
28%
Arenas Armilla scores more
36%

El Ejido at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "El Ejido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: El Ejido vs Arenas Armilla

El Ejido beat Arenas Armilla 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Santo Domingo in El Ejido.