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El Bayadh vs RC Arba — Ligue 1 2018

El Bayadh
El Bayadh
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
RC Arba
RC Arba
3/31/2023Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 21Stade Zakaria Medjdoub

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

El Bayadh50%
×Draw28%
RC Arba22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Bayadh
1.33
RC Arba
0.77

El Bayadh creates 73% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 33 away

creates per match

El Bayadh
1.07
RC Arba
0.82

allows per match

El Bayadh
0.72
RC Arba
1.58

finishing

El Bayadh+0.00on par
RC Arba+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Bayadh ↓

RC Arba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

El Bayadh or draw
78%
El Bayadh or RC Arba
72%
Draw or RC Arba
50%

Winning margin

El Bayadh wins by 2+
24%
RC Arba wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

El Bayadh 1+ goals
74%
El Bayadh 2+ goals
38%
El Bayadh 3+ goals
15%
RC Arba 1+ goals
54%
RC Arba 2+ goals
18%
RC Arba 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

El Bayadh (draw refunded)
70%
RC Arba (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Bayadh at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.72 · 60 matches

RC Arba away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Bayadh attack 1.07 + RC Arba defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.33

RC Arba attack 0.82 + El Bayadh defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

El Bayadh scores more
50%
level
28%
RC Arba scores more
22%

El Bayadh at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "El Bayadh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: El Bayadh 3–1 RC Arba

El Bayadh beat RC Arba 3-1 in Ligue 1 on March 31, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Zakaria Medjdoub in El-Bayadh.