El Álamo 1–2 Unión Adarve: Result & Stats

El Álamo

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Unión Adarve

3/8/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 28Estadio Facundo Rivas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

El Álamo39%

×Draw26%

Unión Adarve35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

El ÁlamoExpected goals in this matchUnión Adarve

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.27

El Álamo

1.35

Unión Adarve

1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 45 away

1.43

creates per match

1.18

1.36

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

El Álamo

1.43

Unión Adarve

1.18

allows per match

El Álamo

1.36

Unión Adarve

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

El Álamo+0.00on par

Unión Adarve+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Álamo ↓

Unión Adarve →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

El Álamo or draw

65%

El Álamo or Unión Adarve

74%

Draw or Unión Adarve

61%

Winning margin

El Álamo wins by 2+

18%

Unión Adarve wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

El Álamo 1+ goals

74%

El Álamo 2+ goals

39%

El Álamo 3+ goals

15%

Unión Adarve 1+ goals

72%

Unión Adarve 2+ goals

36%

Unión Adarve 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

El Álamo (draw refunded)

53%

Unión Adarve (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

El Álamo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.36 · 47 matches

Unión Adarve away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.27 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

El Álamo attack 1.43 + Unión Adarve defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.35

Unión Adarve attack 1.18 + El Álamo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

El Álamo scores more

39%

level

26%

Unión Adarve scores more

35%

El Álamo at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "El Álamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff