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El Álamo vs Aravaca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

El Álamo
El Álamo
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aravaca
Aravaca
12/21/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 16Estadio Facundo Rivas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

El Álamo47%
×Draw26%
Aravaca27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Álamo
1.48
Aravaca
1.06

El Álamo creates 40% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 17 away

creates per match

El Álamo
1.43
Aravaca
0.76

allows per match

El Álamo
1.36
Aravaca
1.53

finishing

El Álamo+0.00on par
Aravaca+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Álamo ↓

Aravaca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

El Álamo or draw
73%
El Álamo or Aravaca
74%
Draw or Aravaca
53%

Winning margin

El Álamo wins by 2+
23%
Aravaca wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

El Álamo 1+ goals
77%
El Álamo 2+ goals
43%
El Álamo 3+ goals
19%
Aravaca 1+ goals
65%
Aravaca 2+ goals
29%
Aravaca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

El Álamo (draw refunded)
63%
Aravaca (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Álamo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.36 · 47 matches

Aravaca away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Álamo attack 1.43 + Aravaca defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.48

Aravaca attack 0.76 + El Álamo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

El Álamo scores more
47%
level
26%
Aravaca scores more
27%

El Álamo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "El Álamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: El Álamo 1–0 Aravaca

El Álamo beat Aravaca 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on December 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Facundo Rivas in El Álamo.