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El Álamo vs Alcobendas Sport — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

El Álamo
El Álamo
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Alcobendas Sport
Alcobendas Sport
4/26/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 32Estadio Facundo Rivas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

El Álamo38%
×Draw26%
Alcobendas Sport36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

El Álamo
1.36
Alcobendas Sport
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 47 home / 117 away

creates per match

El Álamo
1.43
Alcobendas Sport
1.31

allows per match

El Álamo
1.36
Alcobendas Sport
1.30

finishing

El Álamo+0.00on par
Alcobendas Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

El Álamo ↓

Alcobendas Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

El Álamo or draw
64%
El Álamo or Alcobendas Sport
74%
Draw or Alcobendas Sport
62%

Winning margin

El Álamo wins by 2+
17%
Alcobendas Sport wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

El Álamo 1+ goals
74%
El Álamo 2+ goals
39%
El Álamo 3+ goals
16%
Alcobendas Sport 1+ goals
74%
Alcobendas Sport 2+ goals
38%
Alcobendas Sport 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

El Álamo (draw refunded)
51%
Alcobendas Sport (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

El Álamo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.36 · 47 matches

Alcobendas Sport away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.30 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

El Álamo attack 1.43 + Alcobendas Sport defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.36

Alcobendas Sport attack 1.31 + El Álamo defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

El Álamo scores more
38%
level
26%
Alcobendas Sport scores more
36%

El Álamo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "El Álamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: El Álamo 0–1 Alcobendas Sport

Alcobendas Sport beat El Álamo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Facundo Rivas in El Álamo.