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Ekwendeni Hammers vs Mighty Tigers — Super League 2026

Ekwendeni Hammers
Ekwendeni Hammers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mighty Tigers
Mighty Tigers
9/24/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 18Rumphi Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Ekwendeni Hammers47%
×Draw31%
Mighty Tigers22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ekwendeni Hammers
1.18
Mighty Tigers
0.70

Ekwendeni Hammers creates 69% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 76 away

creates per match

Ekwendeni Hammers
1.11
Mighty Tigers
0.53

allows per match

Ekwendeni Hammers
0.87
Mighty Tigers
1.24

finishing

Ekwendeni Hammers+0.00on par
Mighty Tigers+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ekwendeni Hammers ↓

Mighty Tigers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Ekwendeni Hammers or draw
78%
Ekwendeni Hammers or Mighty Tigers
69%
Draw or Mighty Tigers
53%

Winning margin

Ekwendeni Hammers wins by 2+
21%
Mighty Tigers wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ekwendeni Hammers 1+ goals
69%
Ekwendeni Hammers 2+ goals
33%
Ekwendeni Hammers 3+ goals
12%
Mighty Tigers 1+ goals
50%
Mighty Tigers 2+ goals
16%
Mighty Tigers 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ekwendeni Hammers (draw refunded)
68%
Mighty Tigers (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ekwendeni Hammers at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.87 · 75 matches

Mighty Tigers away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ekwendeni Hammers attack 1.11 + Mighty Tigers defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Mighty Tigers attack 0.53 + Ekwendeni Hammers defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ekwendeni Hammers scores more
47%
level
31%
Mighty Tigers scores more
22%

Ekwendeni Hammers at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ekwendeni Hammers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Ekwendeni Hammers 1–1 Mighty Tigers

Ekwendeni Hammers and Mighty Tigers drew 1-1 in Super League on September 24, 2023.

The match was played at Rumphi Stadium in Rhumpi.